Ribbon Cables

As I mentioned earlier this month (and repeated this afternoon), that I am beginning to track scoring chances for SC Olhanense matches. I refer you to afore-linked to posts for most details, although I think I should reiterate how rudimentary and new my process is; I’m mostly getting these locations on the fly as complete games are no released as the are with MLB.tv. Furthermore, I’m not really sure I’m tracking “scoring chances”, per se, but different levels of chances — perhaps furthering the development of my long sought wGVIS stat!

This time around, I only kept track of a small-ish area: the 18-yard box and a little more. I think I’ll expand to tracking three different zones: a triangle extending from the back corners of the 6-yard box; the previously mentioned zone; and a larger zone ending between the centre circle and the 18-yard box. In the future I’ll also try to get the names of players as well.

Finally and unfortunately, I was only home for the second half of the game. From what I hear, though, the following trends were true throughout.

To the drawings:Academica had 13 chances in the second half, most at the beginning of the half. The purple triangle is second zone I mentioned earlier. Anecdotally, I’ve noticed throughout the season that most goals scored against Olhao are from inside that triangle, so I suppose they did well to prevent chances in there. Still, chances 5 through 13 were given up while Academica was down to ten men. As you’ll see, Olhanense only had five chances during the same period.

Honestly, I don’t know how Academica did not win the game. Fabiano Freitas as like a brick wall in goal for Olha’. On Fabiano, his horrible hands giving up too many rebounds may have inflated the numbers here.

2 chances in the 18-yard box is seriously disappointing. Chance 1 was Rui Duarte’s goal, set up wonderfully by the soon-to-be-gone Salvador Agra. Wilson Eduardo made a number of stupid mistakes that, had he not made, would have resulted in some golden opportunities to score some insurance goals. Neither Academica’s defense nor their goalie were very spectacular; the offensive effort was simply not there from Olhanense.

I’m hoping to have a different setup on Friday, when Olhanense take on Braga. I’m expecting the charts to look quite similar.

I’m going to be tracking scoring chances for the second half of the match today (because I’m not home for the first half). Anything directed at the opposition’s goal by the attacking team from inside the 18 yard box will be considered a scoring chance, blocked and missed shots included. I’ll try to include names.
This’ll be a rough trial.

I will begin to track scoring chances for SC Olhanense. I feel like current measures for a team’s play are poor, and thus I want something that is not poor - that is hopefully scoring chances.

I do not know what my definition of scoring chances will be just yet, but I assure you that it will be better than goals, shots, or looking at a team play.

Why? Well, I would like to know why Olhanense is in 7th place. This means I will also have to select random matches between teams from all across the Beer Zone League; knowledge is painful. I hate goals and shots as metrics, because they simply do not work. Goals tell one nothing. Shots don’t take into account quality. Scoring chances do.

I don’t know whether I should start this week or next year. Maybe I’ll try the Benfica - Braga match today. I’ll definitely start doing next season.

I hope this catches on.

The Blue Jays and Dustin McGowan just re-upped his contract for 2 years, both at $1.5 MM, in addition to a club option year worth $4.5 MM. I see a lot of people reacting at the people reacting surprised. Their argument tends to be that there’s no risk for only $3 MM guaranteed, so why not?

I don’t believe that this is a question that necessarily needs to be answered, but I will: sure, at one extreme, he could be amazing and have this contract look amazing; at the other, his arm could fly off and leave us asking why the Jays are spending $3 MM on a guy with a surgically reattached arm instead of on scouting or prospects. I’m a little more wont to think the latter is more likely to happen, unfortunately.

I think the question is - as in all contract situations - why? An organisation should be asking itself why they are offering this guy money. In this case, surely it doesn’t make sense to sign a guy who has pitched all of 21 innings - and not well - to any sort of guaranteed deal. So why do so? Why not wait some time to see if he can still pitch?

I think Drew Fairservice put it best:

In conclusion, I don’t hate the deal, I just don’t understand it. If he’s healthy and effective heading to FA, the Jays are already ahead

— Drew F (@DrewGROF) March 26, 2012

I feel the same. If this new contract had simply appended one or two option years to his current one year contract, I would have been more fond of it. I believe that they should have let McGowan throw some non-September or Spring Training innings before guaranteeing him money.

Finally, I don’t think people should be comparing this to Jose Bautista’s deal. People doubted Bautista’s deal because he didn’t have a history of being a 3+ WAR player. I doubt McGowan’s deal because he’s spent almost three years out of the major leagues with arm injuries - pitchers throw with their arms. We know Bautista will likely be playing everyday throughout his contract; McGowan not so much.